美伊冲突外溢至科威特与埃及，油价高位回落
今日要点
- 美军连夜对伊朗相关目标实施”大规模打击”，当地媒体称霍尔木兹海峡Qeshm岛遭袭致一家三口死亡 [2]Iran vows to ‘punish the aggressor today’ after U.S. unleashes ‘heavy wave’ of s
nbcnews.com[7]Middle East crisis live: Trump claims Gaza deal reached; Iran targets US bases i
The Guardian。 - 伊朗军方宣布周五对科威特境内美军基地发动无人机袭击，称系报复美方侵略 [7]Middle East crisis live: Trump claims Gaza deal reached; Iran targets US bases i
The Guardian。 - 埃及首次遭到袭击，一艘无人机击中其某港口两艘天然气船 [2]Iran vows to ‘punish the aggressor today’ after U.S. unleashes ‘heavy wave’ of s
nbcnews.com[13]July 30, 2026 — Egypt struck for first time as US-Iran conflict pulls in more co
CNN。 - 特朗普宣布已达成加沙”哈马斯完全解除武装”协议，哈马斯确认但以色列官员提出异议 [8]Iraq says it had ‘no prior knowledge’ of US-Saudi attacks – as it happened
The Guardian[10]Middle East crisis live: Trump claims breakthrough reached in Gaza disarmament;
The Guardian。 - 布伦特原油报87.66美元/桶，日跌1.54%；标普500逆势上涨1.66%。
一、战况进展
过去两周，停火与交火交替的模式已经变得令人熟悉 [3]Oil prices remain highly flammable
economist.com。但这一轮的升级节奏，从周三夜间开始骤然加快。
美军方面称，其连夜完成了”大规模打击”，这是对德黑兰攻击中东美军的最新报复 [2]Iran vows to ‘punish the aggressor today’ after U.S. unleashes ‘heavy wave’ of s
nbcnews.com。特朗普总统誓言在伊朗攻击失败后进行报复性打击 [2]Iran vows to ‘punish the aggressor today’ after U.S. unleashes ‘heavy wave’ of s
nbcnews.com。据当地媒体周四报道，美军袭击了霍尔木兹海峡上的Qeshm岛——该岛储存伊朗攻击艇、无人机和水雷等装备，用于干扰霍尔木兹海峡航运 [7]Middle East crisis live: Trump claims Gaza deal reached; Iran targets US bases i
The Guardian。当地媒体称此次袭击造成一家三口死亡 [7]Middle East crisis live: Trump claims Gaza deal reached; Iran targets US bases i
The Guardian。伊朗方面随后在赞詹市为三名革命卫队成员举行葬礼，称这三名成员死于美国袭击 [11]Iran holds funeral for Revolutionary Guard members reportedly killed in US
Al Jazeera。
伊朗的回应来得很快。周四，伊朗誓言要”惩罚”美国 [2]Iran vows to ‘punish the aggressor today’ after U.S. unleashes ‘heavy wave’ of s
nbcnews.com。伊朗议长Ghalibaf称，美国将为杀害伊朗平民”付出代价” [8]Iraq says it had ‘no prior knowledge’ of US-Saudi attacks – as it happened
The Guardian。到了周五，伊朗军方宣布对科威特境内的美军设施发动了无人机袭击，目标为科威特Ahmad al-Jaber空军基地的战机掩体等设施 [7]Middle East crisis live: Trump claims Gaza deal reached; Iran targets US bases i
The Guardian。伊朗军方称，此次袭击是对美军近期侵略以及对Qeshm岛住宅袭击的报复 [7]Middle East crisis live: Trump claims Gaza deal reached; Iran targets US bases i
The Guardian。美军中央司令部未立即置评 [7]Middle East crisis live: Trump claims Gaza deal reached; Iran targets US bases i
The Guardian。伊拉克方面则表示，对美沙袭击”事先不知情” [8]Iraq says it had ‘no prior knowledge’ of US-Saudi attacks – as it happened
The Guardian。
冲突的外溢效应还在扩大。埃及周四确认，一架无人机击中其某港口两艘天然气船 [2]Iran vows to ‘punish the aggressor today’ after U.S. unleashes ‘heavy wave’ of s
nbcnews.com。据CNN报道，这是2026年7月30日埃及首次遭到袭击，美伊冲突正在卷入更多国家 [13]July 30, 2026 — Egypt struck for first time as US-Iran conflict pulls in more co
CNN。
在另一条战线上，以色列军队袭击了黎巴嫩南部波福堡附近地区，以军方称使用700吨炸药摧毁了部分真主党隧道网络 [14]Southern Lebanese towns near Beaufort Castle hit by Israeli strikes
Al Jazeera。以色列此前于6月同意分阶段从黎巴嫩撤军，由黎军方解除真主党武装 [14]Southern Lebanese towns near Beaufort Castle hit by Israeli strikes
Al Jazeera。
与此同时，加沙方向出现了外交突破的信号。特朗普称已达成哈马斯解除武装、以色列从加沙撤军的协议，协议将分阶段执行 [7]Middle East crisis live: Trump claims Gaza deal reached; Iran targets US bases i
The Guardian[10]Middle East crisis live: Trump claims breakthrough reached in Gaza disarmament;
The Guardian。哈马斯官员确认了与以色列结束冲突的协议，称协议包括以色列从加沙”逐步撤军” [8]Iraq says it had ‘no prior knowledge’ of US-Saudi attacks – as it happened
The Guardian。据BBC报道，哈马斯首次接受在加沙完全解除武装的计划框架，计划规定在巴勒斯坦监督下盘点和储存剩余重型武器 [12]If Hamas disarmament plan holds, it could mark first credible step to ending Gaz
BBC。哈马斯高级官员称，坚持在巴勒斯坦监督下储存武器而非交给以色列 [12]If Hamas disarmament plan holds, it could mark first credible step to ending Gaz
BBC。哈马斯还完成了领导层选举，哈利勒·哈亚出任领导人 [12]If Hamas disarmament plan holds, it could mark first credible step to ending Gaz
BBC。
但协议的执行前景仍存分歧。哈马斯称，若以色列不执行协议，哈马斯也不会执行 [8]Iraq says it had ‘no prior knowledge’ of US-Saudi attacks – as it happened
The Guardian。以色列官员则称，解除武装计划不符合以色列对加沙解除武装的要求 [8]Iraq says it had ‘no prior knowledge’ of US-Saudi attacks – as it happened
The Guardian。
二、原油与能源市场
霍尔木兹海峡的交通已经出现疲软迹象，全球能源系统承压 [3]Oil prices remain highly flammable
economist.com。谈判无进展，伊朗坚持要求独控霍尔木兹海峡 [3]Oil prices remain highly flammable
economist.com。
油价在过去一个月经历了大幅波动。布伦特原油曾在7月23日触及102美元的盘中峰值，此后有所回落，约在90美元/桶附近 [3]Oil prices remain highly flammable
economist.com。据OilPrice.com报道，油价月度涨幅有望达20%，尽管近期有所回落 [9]Oil Prices Head for 20% Monthly Surge Despite Recent Pullback – Crude Oil Prices
Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com。
截至发稿时点，WTI原油报81.89美元/桶，日跌2.03%；布伦特原油报87.66美元/桶，日跌1.54%。两个基准油价均较近期高点继续下行。
三、金融市场冲击
在油价回落的同时，其他资产也呈现出各自的方向。黄金报4139.2美元/盎司，日跌0.51%。标普500则报7437.63点，日涨1.66%，与油价的下行形成对照。
从整体格局看，美伊冲突的升级与外溢——从霍尔木兹海峡到科威特、再到埃及——与加沙方向的外交进展同时发生，市场在两条线索之间消化信息。油价从月内高点回落，股市则出现反弹。过去两周停火与交火交替的模式仍在延续 [3]Oil prices remain highly flammable
economist.com，各方声明与实际行动之间的落差也依然存在。
行情速览
| 品种 | 最新 | 日涨跌 |
|---|---|---|
| WTI原油 | 81.89 美元/桶 | -2.03% |
| 布伦特原油 | 87.66 美元/桶 | -1.54% |
| 黄金 | 4139.2 美元/盎司 | -0.51% |
| 标普500 | 7437.63 点 | +1.66% |
| VIX恐慌指数 | — | — |
行情为发稿时点快照，数据来源：CNBC。
免责声明：本文仅对公开资讯进行收集与整理，不构成任何投资建议或操作指引，亦不代表对市场走势的预测。据此操作，风险自负。